Introduction
In the high-stakes battle over chip supremacy, even the biggest tech giants aren’t safe. Dutch chip machine maker ASML, once riding high with a $429 billion market value, has lost a staggering $130 billion in less than a year.
And it’s not because of poor performance—but politics. As the U.S.-China chip war heats up, ASML has become the latest victim in a global tech showdown that’s reshaping the future of semiconductors.
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Brief Overview
ASML’s market value dropped from $429.5 billion in July 2024 to $297 billion, lost $130 billion by May 2025.
US export restrictions on advanced chip machines to China have severely impacted ASML’s sales.
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet expects China sales to decline further in 2025.
ASML is the world’s only producer of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines essential for making cutting-edge chips.
Analysts predict a possible market recovery if trade relations between the US and Europe improve.
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ASML: A Crucial Player in the Semiconductor Industry
Founded in 1984 as a joint venture between Philips and ASM International, ASML became independent in 1995. Headquartered in Veldhoven, Netherlands, ASML is the only company globally that manufactures Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines.
These machines enable chipmakers like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel to produce the most advanced, smallest, and fastest microchips.
ASML also produces Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems and offers metrology and inspection solutions.
With over 42,000 employees and a vast supplier network in 60 countries, ASML dominates the high-tech equipment segment of chip manufacturing.
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Impact of US-China Trade Restrictions
The US government’s trade policies have banned the export of ASML’s EUV machines to China, aiming to slow China’s progress in semiconductor technology.
This restriction cuts off a vital revenue source for ASML.
In 2023, Asia accounted for about 70% of ASML’s total sales, with China contributing a significant share.
The export ban has forced ASML to curb its shipments to China, hurting its top-line growth.
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet has stated clearly that sales from China will fall in 2025 compared to 2023 and 2024 levels.
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Market Value and Revenue Impact
| Date | Market Value (USD Billion) | Estimated Revenue (USD Billion) | Asia Sales Contribution (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | 429.5 | 30 (2023) | 70 |
| May 2025 | 297 | Projected decline | Declining due to China ban |
The market value loss equates to roughly $130 billion (Rs 11 lakh crore), a huge blow to this European tech leader.
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Future Prospects and Analyst Views
Despite current challenges, ASML has started shipping next-generation High Numerical Aperture (High NA) EUV machines, which offer even finer chip patterning. These are in demand from major chipmakers expanding production outside China.
Industry experts suggest that a potential US-Europe trade agreement could ease restrictions and boost ASML’s market outlook. Analysts forecast a possible 17% stock price recovery in the near term as demand for chipmaking equipment grows worldwide.
Why ASML Matters in the Global Chip Supply Chain
ASML’s lithography machines are vital to sustaining Moore’s Law—the trend of shrinking transistor sizes and boosting chip performance.
Advanced chips power AI, 5G, cloud computing, and electric vehicles. Any disruption in ASML’s supply chain affects the entire semiconductor ecosystem.
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Conclusion
ASML’s $130 billion market value drop highlights the powerful impact of geopolitics on high-tech industries.
The US-China tech conflict has forced companies like ASML into the crossfire, underscoring the fragile balance in the global chip supply chain.
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