Introduction
ASML, the world’s leading semiconductor equipment supplier, has raised its sales forecast for China, predicting that the region will account for over 25% of its revenue by Q1 2025.
This marks a significant shift from earlier projections that indicated a potential dip in sales due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions and export restrictions. Despite concerns over U.S. tariffs, ASML’s sales in China have shown resilience.
However, the tech giant remains cautious about China’s ability to independently produce extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines anytime soon. ASML’s CEO, Christophe Fouquet, is not convinced by claims that China is close to a breakthrough in EUV technology.
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Overview: Key Points
China’s Sales Contribution: ASML expects China to contribute more than 25% of its total revenue by 2025, a notable increase.
Strong Demand for DUV Machines: Despite U.S. export restrictions, China’s demand for ASML’s older deep ultraviolet (DUV) machines remains steady.
China’s EUV Progress: There is growing speculation that China is advancing its efforts to build EUV machines, but ASML’s CEO remains skeptical.
Q1 2025 Performance: In ASML Q1 2025, China accounted for 27% of ASML’s total system sales, maintaining stability from previous quarters.
Ongoing Geopolitical Uncertainty: Despite strong demand, U.S. tariffs and export controls continue to create uncertainty for ASML’s future growth in China.
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ASML’s Strong China Performance
In Q1 2025, ASML reported that China accounted for 27% of its total system sales, a consistent figure from the fourth quarter of 2024.
The company had previously warned that Chinese sales could fall to around 20% due to the U.S.-China trade conflict and potential tariff hikes.
However, the demand from China has proven more resilient than expected, particularly for older DUV machines.
| Region | Sales Contribution (Q1 2025) | Previous Quarter (Q4 2024) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 27% | 27% | 0% |
| Europe | 35% | 36% | -1% |
| North America | 20% | 19% | +1% |
| Other regions | 18% | 18% | 0% |
These older machines are essential for semiconductor manufacturers, particularly in China, which faces ongoing export restrictions on more advanced technologies.
Despite the limitations on accessing cutting-edge tools, Chinese chipmakers have continued to invest in DUV systems, which are still vital for producing mainstream chips used in everyday devices.
ASML’s Chief Financial Officer, Roger Dassen, noted that the demand for chips, both for domestic consumption and export, remains robust. This is a key factor driving the strong sales numbers from China.
“The resilience of the market is even slightly stronger than we anticipated three to six months ago,” Dassen said.
China’s Efforts to Develop EUV Technology
EUV lithography machines are critical for the production of the most advanced semiconductor nodes. ASML is the only company capable of producing these machines at the scale required for mass production. However, rumors have been circulating that China is closer to developing its own EUV technology.
Reports suggest that Huawei is testing a homegrown EUV lithography system at its Dongguan facility. This machine is expected to enter trial production by the third quarter of 2025, with mass production scheduled for 2026. While these claims have generated excitement in the tech industry, ASML’s CEO, Christophe Fouquet, has expressed skepticism.
Fouquet pointed out that while it is possible for China to develop some aspects of EUV technology, such as EUV light generation or mirrors, the circulating images of the system seem to be research-focused rather than indicative of a commercial product. He emphasized that it would still take many years for China to build a fully functional EUV machine capable of competing with ASML’s current offerings.
“It’s possible to show progress, but I think we are still many years away from seeing a real EUV machine from China,” Fouquet stated.
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The Road Ahead for ASML in China
While ASML remains cautious about China’s EUV ambitions, its strong performance in the region is likely to continue.
The demand for older DUV machines, combined with China’s increasing semiconductor production capacity, will help drive sales growth for ASML in the coming years.
However, the company faces ongoing challenges in the form of trade restrictions and tariffs.
As of now, ASML’s position as the leader in the semiconductor equipment industry remains unchallenged. The company’s EUV machines are critical to the production of cutting-edge chips used in everything from smartphones to artificial intelligence applications.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the development of China’s own EUV machines, ASML’s expertise and dominance in the market are unlikely to be threatened in the immediate future.
techovedas.com/asml-doubles-down-on-china-with-new-beijing-repair-center-despite-u-s-export-curbs
Conclusion
ASML Q1 2025 sales in China surged, making up 27% of total system sales—far above expectations. Demand for older DUV machines remains high, but ASML is skeptical of China’s EUV progress.
Despite some claims, the CEO believes China is still years away from building a competitive EUV system. For now, ASML’s dominance in chipmaking equipment stays secure amid shifting global tensions.
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