Introduction
As U.S.–China trade tensions escalate under Trump’s proposed tariff increases, major chipmakers are preparing for market shifts. In their latest earnings calls, semiconductor giants including Intel, Texas Instruments (TI), NXP Semiconductors, and STMicroelectronics (STM) offered fresh insights into how trade policies are shaping demand, supply chains, and revenue outlooks.
These early signals provide a valuable preview of how the global chip industry may respond if new tariffs hit full force.
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5 Key Takeaways
Intel sees rising demand for older chips as customers avoid premium AI processors due to cost concerns.
TI expects tariff effects to emerge in late 2025, despite near-term demand recovery.
NXP is cautiously optimistic, facing slowing revenue and an upcoming CEO transition.
STMicro remains steady, with no customer panic but a conservative sales forecast.
China exposure remains a critical risk, especially for U.S. firms like Intel and TI.
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Intel: Older Chips Gain Appeal Amid Tariff Worries
Intel is seeing a surprising trend: customers are choosing its previous-generation chips, like Raptor Lake built on 7nm, instead of newer AI-focused Lunar Lake and Meteor Lake models. According to Reuters and Tom’s Hardware, tariffs and inflation are pushing buyers toward affordability.
Intel forecasts Q2 2025 revenue between $11.2 billion and $12.4 billion, down from $12.67 billion in Q1. The company expects to break even on adjusted earnings per share.
Tariffs have clouded Intel’s business outlook. China’s potential retaliatory levies on U.S. semiconductors could hurt Intel’s bottom line in the coming quarters.
Texas Instruments: Exposure to China Raises Red Flags
TI reported a moderate rebound in demand, projecting Q2 revenue between $4.17 billion and $4.53 billion, up from $4.07 billion in Q1. However, CEO Haviv Ilan cautioned that the true impact of tariffs might not appear until late 2025 or 2026, depending on how trade policy evolves.
China remains a key market for TI, contributing roughly 20% of its annual revenue, according to Reuters. This makes the company highly vulnerable to escalating U.S.–China trade tensions.
NXP: Tariffs Add to Pressure as Leadership Changes
Dutch chipmaker NXP Semiconductors reported a 9% revenue decline in Q1 to $2.84 billion, and expects Q2 revenue between $2.8 billion and $3 billion, according to Bloomberg.
CEO Kurt Sievers is stepping down in October. Rafael Sotomayor will take over leadership, inheriting a company navigating weak demand in EVs and smartphones and dealing with global uncertainty around tariffs.
Despite challenges, NXP remains “cautiously optimistic,” hoping for gradual stabilization as markets adjust.
STMicroelectronics: Watching and Waiting
STMicroelectronics, a key European chipmaker, hasn’t seen any sudden reaction from customers yet. CEO Jean-Marc Chery noted that while customers aren’t panicking, the company remains cautious.
Adjusting global supply chains is complex and time-consuming. STM expects 2025 revenue to be lower than 2024, reflecting soft demand in automotive and industrial segments and macroeconomic headwinds. The company has not released full-year guidance.
Tariff Impact on Chipmakers: Q2 2025 Outlook
| Company | Q1 Revenue (2025) | Q2 Revenue Forecast | China Exposure | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intel | $12.67B | $11.2B – $12.4B | High | Demand shift to older chips |
| 1Texas Instruments | $4.07B | $4.17B – $4.53B | ~20% | Delayed tariff effects expected |
| NXP Semiconductors | $2.84B | $2.8B – $3.0B | Moderate | Weak EV/smartphone demand; CEO transition |
| STMicroelectronics | N/A | Revenue to decline YoY | Moderate | No panic yet; cautious supply chain outlook |
Conclusion
With tariff uncertainty on the rise, major chipmakers are preparing for an uneven recovery and continued global disruptions. Companies with large China exposure, like Intel NXP STMicroelectronics face the greatest risk. Others, like are monitoring developments and adjusting expectations cautiously.
As trade policies evolve, the second half of 2025 will be crucial for semiconductor firms. Investors and partners should watch closely for signs of demand shifts and supply chain restructuring.
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