
The rise of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has sparked a critical conversation about the future of work and society. As AI advancements accelerate, concerns are mounting about widespread job displacement and the potential for an exacerbated wealth gap. In this context, Universal Basic Income (UBI) emerges as a potential solution to mitigate these challenges.
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What is Universal Basic Income?
The idea behind Universal Basic Income, or UBI for short is that it’s like a safety net to make sure everyone has enough money to cover their basic needs, like food, rent, and clothes.
Every person in a country gets a regular amount of money from the government, kind of like a gift. This money would be given to everyone, no matter if they have a job or not, and no matter how much money they already make.
Think of it this way: right now, if you lose your job, you might not have enough money to pay your bills. UBI would be like a cushion to fall back on. It gives you some breathing room while you find a new job.
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Why is There a Need of UBI In a Post-AGI World?
The core argument for UBI rests on the transformative potential of AGI. Here’s the reasoning:
Job Displacement and AGI: The integration of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will likely significantly alter the employment landscape. According to a report by the World Economic Forum, AI and autonomous machines could replace 85 million jobs but also create 97 million new positions by 2025.
Widening Wealth Gap: The increase of AI technologies has the potential to worsen economic disparities. AI-driven industries are concentrating power and wealth in the hands of a select few. These benefits are primarily being reaped by the tech giants and those with the capital to invest in these technologies. This concentration of wealth can lead to increased social stratification and reduced economic mobility.
Loss of Economic Agency: AGI is good at many things humans are good at. This could hurt the way we normally get jobs and make money. As AGI gets better at things only people used to do, it will be harder and harder for people to find work.
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Challenges and Considerations
While UBI offers a promising solution, there are challenges to consider:
Inflation Concerns: The infusion of money into the economy through UBI payments has the potential to increase inflation. Money supply growing faster than the economy might make things more expensive. This could weaken the buying power of the UBI payment. But some studies say inflation from UBI might be small. This is if there are still unemployed people or if the UBI is paid for with taxes, not new money.
Funding the UBI Program: The implementation of UBI would necessitate substantial financial resources from the government. Giving every U.S. adult $12,000 a year would cost $3 trillion. To pay for this, the government might raise taxes, use money from other programs, or create new taxes, like on pollution or stock trades.
Programmable Money and CBDCs: The advent of programmable central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) introduces the possibility of distributing UBI in a digital form. While CBDCs can enhance payment efficiency and financial inclusion, they also raise concerns about privacy and autonomy. Programmable CBDCs could allow governments to dictate how UBI funds are spent, which might be seen as an infringement on personal freedom. Moreover, the use of CBDCs could lead to increased transparency and reduced fraud, but it also poses questions about the role of traditional banking and the impact on monetary policy.
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Conclusion
The rise of AGI casts a long shadow on the future of work. UBI presents a potential solution to navigate the economic and social disruptions that might lie ahead. While there are hurdles to overcome, a well-designed UBI program could be a key component in ensuring a more equitable and just future for all.